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Hyman Minsky, American Economist (1919-1996) Hyman Minsky proposed theories linking market fragility and the normal economic cycle with speculative bubbles innate to financial markets. The bubble of cryptocurrency burst, resulting in economic losses of approximately $2 trillion. Traditionally, markets bottom out prior to GDP.
Investment Themes In our prior letter, we reviewed investment themes including deglobalization, the end of zero-interest-rate policies, tepid economic growth, and the end of the current rate-hiking cycle. Its economic effect will also be deflationary. The rate of adoption will influence the speed of the productivity boost.
Contributing to that growth were two significant happenings: America helped rebuild Europe and Japan, triggering economic benefits for our nation, and the largest generation in U.S. While politics is never our focus, the potential impact of an election on economic markets will always concern us. history was born.
We believe many of these counter balances are nearing an end, and the economic impacts of the Fed’s policy, which are always felt on a lagged basis, will begin to manifest on Main Street soon. Lastly, the impact of fiscal stimulus through the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) created a boom in manufacturing spending.
Given the economic data, the Fed also had a more hawkish rate-tightening outlook than expected. In large measure, the hawkish tone of the Fed is driven by moral suasion and, to a lesser degree, recent economic data. This came to pass in June as the Fed paused its rate-hiking cadence, which began in March 2022.
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