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Bank Failures, Rate Hikes and Market Mean Reverts As investment practitioners, we regularly encourage our clients to remain calm when reacting to unfavorable media reports about the economy or geopolitics. Note: These investments are suitable for clients with both significant financial wherewithal and an ability to bear illiquidity risk.
Rather than trying to predict the future, we prefer to construct solid portfolios, focus on longer-term investable themes, and identify third-party manager talent with demonstrable (and persistent) alpha-generation ability. In fact, at our most recent Investment Policy Committee meeting, we decided it was time to declare “Victory!”
Views and Investment Themes for 2023 and Beyond While the ability to predict market moves in the near term isn’t possible for anyone, we are able to identify themes that present risks and opportunities.
In investing, we see clear corollaries to this statement. Equity markets are justifiably high risk investments, given the historically high returns they afford investors over long investment horizons. As asset allocators, studying the past helps us see the investment landscape for what it is—not what we wish it to be.
In other words, the less one pays at the time of initial investment, the greater the forward returns. Historically, investing at such levels results in lower future returns. Understanding this, we believe that investing in equities today will likely result in lower returns than in the recent past.
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