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FIGURE 3 Source: Strategas Securities LLC Another key factor in future equity market performance is valuation. A common method for expressing the value of equities is the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, a stock valuation metric that compares a company’s share price to its earnings per share. We look forward to seeing you soon!
The phenomenon is likely to play out over several years with various ramifications, including valuations. As shown in Figure 3, below, from 1950 through 1989 (a period that was also less globalized and national interest and security were more heavily considered), equity valuations were expectedly lower.
With the risk of a recession still looming, we remain defensive when considering market valuations and our outlook for a deteriorating macro view. Our decision to reduce large cap equity exposure in April looks smarter today than it did last quarter. Clearly, the rise in rates has been painful for fixed income investors.
These two factors paint a valuation picture that is less attractive than it had been. The only change in this positioning from our last quarterly letter was our decision to cut our overweight position in large cap US equities to neutral weight. We appreciate the opportunity to assist you and thank you for your continued trust and confidence.
With the risk of a recession still looming, we remain defensive when considering market valuations and our outlook for a deteriorating macro view. FIGURE 4 Source: Strategas Securities LLC Our Current Tactical Positioning Our current views are expressed in Figure 5, below. You’ll notice our positioning hasn’t changed since our last letter.
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